Standings simulator

This python3 program runs given number of simulations and outputs "probabilities" for each given team for each ranking.

Output

Output is a table of ranking occurrence percentages in simulations.

team,1,2,3,4,5,6
Italy,67.64,21.73,7.50,2.53,0.57,0.03
Finland,21.74,43.01,20.24,9.88,4.40,0.73
Armenia,6.58,17.30,31.94,24.33,15.26,4.60
Greece,2.17,8.75,17.21,25.55,32.49,13.84
Bosnia,1.81,8.34,19.28,28.39,27.37,14.81
Swe Den,0.07,0.87,3.83,9.32,19.91,66.00

This says that Finland had second place in 43.01% of simulations.

Input

python3 probability.py -ps f -wpff -ss 100000 -tp 0.186842 -t Italy Finland Armenia Bosnia Greece "Swe Den" -er example-existing-results.txt -r 2
python3 probability.py -ps f -wpw -ss 100000 -tp 0.186842 -t Italy Finland Armenia Bosnia Greece "Swe Den" -ag all-games.txt
python3 probability.py -ps 3ph -wpff -ss 100000 -tp 0.186842 -t Italy Finland Armenia Bosnia Greece "Swe Den" -r 4

• -s, --sample-size:
  • Number of simulations
• -tp, --tie-probability:
  • Probability of a tie. Premier league schedule in 2018-2019 had 380 games of which 71 ended in a tie resulting 0.186842105263158,
• -wpff, --win-probability-fifty-fifty:
  • Probability of win is assumed to be equal between any two teams. This is the default behaviour at the moment, so the switch is redundant.
• -wpw, --win-probability-weighted:
  • Probability of win is weighted by points percentage of existing game results. This option will give odd results if no existing results are given.
• -tp, --tie-probability:
  • Probability of a tie. Premier league schedule in 2018-2019 had 380 games of which 71 ended in a tie resulting 0.186842105263158,
• -t, --teams:
  • List of participating teams
• -ps, --points-system:
  • Points system, "f" for football (1X2: 3-0 or 1-1), "3ph" for 3 point hockey (0-1-2-3) system
• -r, --rounds:
  • How many rounds are played against each other. Do not use with --all-games. Probably will not work well if the number is odd.
• -er, --existing-results:
  • Path to file containing existing results. Rounds argument should be used with this.
• -ag, --all-games:
  • Path to file containing all games. Game result should be written in third column.

Example of existing results file:

#2019-03-23
Bosnia,Armenia,1
Italy,Finland,1
Swe Den,Greece,2
#2019-03-26
Armenia,Finland,2
Bosnia,Greece,X
Italy,Swe Den,1
#2019-06-08
Armenia,Swe Den,1
Finland,Bosnia,1
Greece,Italy,2
#2019-06-11
Greece,Armenia,2
Italy,Bosnia,1
Swe Den,Finland,2

Example of all games file:

#2019-03-23
Bosnia,Armenia,1
Italy,Finland,1
Swe Den,Greece,2
#2019-03-26
Armenia,Finland,2
Bosnia,Greece,X
Italy,Swe Den,1
#2019-06-08
Armenia,Swe Den
Finland,Bosnia
Greece,Italy
#2019-06-11
Greece,Armenia
Italy,Bosnia
Swe Den,Finland