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fix the gd vert again
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stmorse committed Oct 17, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ We're interested in learning the parameters $$\Theta$$ --- first we'll derive th

## Log-likelihood (in general)

Consider a point process where the probability density of a single event is conditional on the event history, that is $$f^*(t)=f(t|\mathcal{H}_t)$$. We also have the cumulative density function (CDF) as $$F^*(t)=\int_{-\infty}^t f^*(s)ds$$. Then the conditional intensity (aka hazard function) is
Consider a point process where the probability density of a single event is conditional on the event history, that is $$f^*(t)=f(t\vert\mathcal{H}_t)$$. We also have the cumulative density function (CDF) as $$F^*(t)=\int_{-\infty}^t f^*(s)ds$$. Then the conditional intensity (aka hazard function) is

$$
\lambda(t) = \frac{f^*(t)}{1-F^*(t)}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -99,7 +99,7 @@ $$
T\sum_u \mu_u - \sum_u \sum_i H_{uu_i}(T-t_i)
$$

where $$H_{uu_i}(t) = \int_^t h_{uu_i}(s)ds$$.
where $$H_{uu_i}(t) = \int_0^t h_{uu_i}(s)ds$$.



Expand All @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ Several important insights here. First, the indicator variables are turning on/
Third, notice that for any event $$t_i$$, that is for every term in the sum $$\sum_i$$, we will only have a single indicator variable active, by definition. Either that event is a background event ($$q_{ii}=1$$) or exactly one of the preceding events caused it ($$q_{ij}=1$$). So we could take the indicator variables *out* of the log *and split the log*:

$$
\log(q_ii \mu + \sum_j q_{ij} h) = q_{ii} \log \mu + \sum_j q_{ij} \log h
\log(q_{ii} \mu + \sum_j q_{ij} h) = q_{ii} \log \mu + \sum_j q_{ij} \log h
$$

This is a remarkable step, and I don't find it clearly explained in any paper, dissertation, or text. Maybe I'm just thick-headed.
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