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Ds/season summary#197

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dsweber2 wants to merge 60 commits intomaincmu-delphi/exploration-tooling:mainfrom

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Commits on Apr 10, 2025

• initial decreasing forecasters rmd

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• geo_pooled

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Commits on Apr 11, 2025

• the problem is quantile regression

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• double population scaling, fixing made it worse

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• linear parenthetical, boost trees are fine

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• moving things around, coefficient inspection

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• format and add as_of plots to fanplots

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• exploring the fit data in detail

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• also doing this for covid

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Commits on Apr 12, 2025

• reorg

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• tweaks

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Commits on Apr 14, 2025

• yet more tweaks

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• clearer read-through for others

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• tests borked b/c curl?

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• filter pre 2022, test dependencies

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• enh: add forecasting on diffs (ARI rather than AR)

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• doc: add some comments

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• growth_rate filtering

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• enh: try seasonal windowing on diffs forecaster

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Commits on Apr 15, 2025

• enh: do diffs forecast on flusion data

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• minor fixes

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Commits on Apr 16, 2025

• fix+enh: minor fixes and add 0 intercept to slope calculation

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• wip: start season summary

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• Getting backtest_mode working

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• revision summary notebook

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Commits on Apr 18, 2025

• Basic revision summary complete

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Commits on Apr 22, 2025

• scores mix all forecasters, first covid day problems

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• phase definitions and scores

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Commits on Apr 23, 2025

• fix: covid generation dates

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Commits on Apr 25, 2025

• external scores updating, score only shared dates

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Commits on Apr 28, 2025

• hotfix: april 9 data tweaks

  

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• doc: make run.R more correct about env vars

  

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• toc, various minor notes

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• Merge branch 'main' into ds/season-summary

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• including forecasts, more text

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• include first_day_wrong, covid forecasts

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Commits on Apr 29, 2025

• order via factor, covid fcsts, ggplotly

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• doc: season summary lint and covid updates

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• doc: first day wrong lints

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• doc: big update to template.md, describe our forecaster families

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• doc: add some styling to template.md

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• doc: minor template lint

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• doc: more styling

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• doc: even more

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• doc: lint revision summary

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Commits on Apr 30, 2025

• latest forecast

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• latest fcst needs -1 ahead not present

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• adding latest to flu

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• `latest` results, takeaways

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Commits on May 8, 2025

• doc+lint: add future work section, caveat diffed tests, improve forecaster descriptions

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• wip: exploration summary

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• Merge branch 'main' into ds/season-summary

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• doc: template

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• fix: remove debug from overall notebook

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• doc: exploration summary

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• repo: renv

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• lint: remove priority target args, as they're deprecated

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• repo: renv

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Commits on May 9, 2025

• fix: a very complicated way to fix a bug

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• lint: minor idiom tweak

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