Stack: PostgreSQL · SQL (CTEs, Window Functions) · Financial Modeling
Data: Real Datadog FY2025 public financials
Author: Oleksandra Hordieieva
Built: April 2026
Models how Datadog's geographic expansion into EMEA and APAC markets impacts ARR, churn, NRR, LTV/CAC, and unit economics. Three scenarios are compared over a 24-month horizon using verified FY2025 financial data as the baseline.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Full-year revenue | $3,427M (+28% YoY) | Q4 FY2025 Earnings, Feb 10 2026 |
| Q4 revenue | $953M | Q4 FY2025 Earnings |
| Customers > $100K ARR | 4,310 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Customers > $1M ARR | 603 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| GAAP gross margin | 80.0% | FY2025 |
| Free cash flow | $915M | FY2025 |
Source: Datadog Q4 FY2025 Earnings Release
| Scenario | ARR Growth Year 1 | New Markets | Investment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base (core only) | 20% | None | — |
| EMEA Expansion | ~23% | EMEA_NEW | ~$80M |
| Aggressive | ~27% | EMEA_NEW + APAC | ~$180M |
- MRR / ARR by market — with
LAG()window function for MoM growth rate - MRR Waterfall — monthly revenue bridge using
CASE WHENpivot - Cohort Retention — NRR analysis with
AGE()and integer month indexing - Gross Churn Rate — monthly and annualized, with
LEFT JOINon churn events - LTV / CAC — by customer segment and market, with CAC payback period
- Scenario Comparison — three-scenario ARR engine via
scenario_revenuetable - Expansion ROI — incremental ARR vs investment cost per market
data_model/
| File | Description |
|---|---|
01_schema.sql |
Relational schema — 8 tables with relationships |
02_seed_data.sql |
Reference data + verified modeling assumptions |
sql_queries/
| File | Description |
|---|---|
01_mrr_arr.sql |
MRR and ARR by market with MoM growth |
02_mrr_waterfall.sql |
Monthly MRR movement bridge |
03_cohort_retention.sql |
Revenue cohort NRR analysis |
04_churn_rate.sql |
Gross churn rate monthly and annualized |
05_ltv_cac.sql |
LTV / CAC by segment and market |
06_scenario_comparison.sql |
Three-scenario ARR comparison |
07_expansion_roi.sql |
Expansion investment ROI |
docs/
| File | Description |
|---|---|
assumptions_and_sources.md |
All data sources and modeling assumptions |
New markets structurally start with lower NRR (~95% in year 1) due to higher churn, GDPR compliance overhead, and weaker local support coverage. The model shows that if expansion-market NRR crosses 100% by month 18, the investment becomes self-funding. Datadog's $915M FCF in FY2025 confirms the company can sustain ~$180M expansion spend without impairing cash generation.