|
| 1 | +{ |
| 2 | + "action_conditioning_gate": { |
| 3 | + "diagnostic_only_variants": [ |
| 4 | + "no_graph_degree" |
| 5 | + ], |
| 6 | + "passed": true, |
| 7 | + "required_baselines": [ |
| 8 | + "train_mean_static", |
| 9 | + "no_action_signal", |
| 10 | + "shuffled_action_signal" |
| 11 | + ], |
| 12 | + "target_rows": [ |
| 13 | + { |
| 14 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 15 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 16 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 17 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 3.2363e-05, |
| 18 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 5.0925e-05, |
| 19 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.364496809, |
| 20 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.3648585, |
| 21 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 5.0954e-05, |
| 22 | + "target": "reward", |
| 23 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.00222562 |
| 24 | + }, |
| 25 | + { |
| 26 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 27 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 28 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 29 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 4.7398e-05, |
| 30 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 0.000166544, |
| 31 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.715402536, |
| 32 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.715387156, |
| 33 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 0.000166535, |
| 34 | + "target": "heat_risk_delta", |
| 35 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.000515613 |
| 36 | + }, |
| 37 | + { |
| 38 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 39 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 40 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 41 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 2.3891e-05, |
| 42 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 0.000133698, |
| 43 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.821306227, |
| 44 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.821232687, |
| 45 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 0.000133643, |
| 46 | + "target": "air_pollution_exposure_delta", |
| 47 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.00019195 |
| 48 | + }, |
| 49 | + { |
| 50 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 51 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 52 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 53 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 7.0409e-05, |
| 54 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 0.000166277, |
| 55 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.576555988, |
| 56 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.576634918, |
| 57 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 0.000166308, |
| 58 | + "target": "service_accessibility_delta", |
| 59 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.000278574 |
| 60 | + }, |
| 61 | + { |
| 62 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 63 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 64 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 65 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 2.3583e-05, |
| 66 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 3.3746e-05, |
| 67 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.301161619, |
| 68 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.301720309, |
| 69 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 3.3773e-05, |
| 70 | + "target": "equity_delta", |
| 71 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.000112498 |
| 72 | + }, |
| 73 | + { |
| 74 | + "beats_no_action_signal": true, |
| 75 | + "beats_shuffled_action_signal": true, |
| 76 | + "beats_train_mean_static": true, |
| 77 | + "full_action_state_graph_mae": 2.8648e-05, |
| 78 | + "no_action_signal_mae": 4.9349e-05, |
| 79 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_no_action_signal": 0.419481651, |
| 80 | + "relative_mae_reduction_vs_shuffled_action_signal": 0.42017487, |
| 81 | + "shuffled_action_signal_mae": 4.9408e-05, |
| 82 | + "target": "livability_delta", |
| 83 | + "train_mean_static_mae": 0.000241026 |
| 84 | + } |
| 85 | + ] |
| 86 | + }, |
| 87 | + "audit_trace": { |
| 88 | + "action_signal_feature_names": [ |
| 89 | + "action_increase_green_infrastructure", |
| 90 | + "action_traffic_emission_control", |
| 91 | + "action_add_community_service", |
| 92 | + "action_other", |
| 93 | + "intensity", |
| 94 | + "mask_heat_risk", |
| 95 | + "mask_air_pollution", |
| 96 | + "mask_service_gap" |
| 97 | + ], |
| 98 | + "graph_degree_feature_names": [ |
| 99 | + "target_degree_norm" |
| 100 | + ], |
| 101 | + "model_class": "linear_ridge_action_conditioned_graph_dynamics", |
| 102 | + "shuffled_action_signal_roll_offset": 137, |
| 103 | + "source_artifact_path": "data/uwm_public_proxy/chongqing_central/data_calibrated_planner_replay_full_admin_graph_2026_07_08/uwm_full_admin_graph_model_based_graph_search.json" |
| 104 | + }, |
| 105 | + "benchmark_id": "uwm-core-action-conditioned-dynamics-benchmark-2026-07-09", |
| 106 | + "claim_boundary": { |
| 107 | + "max_claim_level": "bounded_support", |
| 108 | + "reason": "The benchmark tests same-scene full-admin replay dynamics prediction: an action-conditioned graph-state model must beat static, no-action, and shuffled-action baselines on every modeled target. It does not claim observed intervention or policy-outcome superiority." |
| 109 | + }, |
| 110 | + "created_at": "2026-07-09T14:00:00Z", |
| 111 | + "empirical_superiority_claim": false, |
| 112 | + "experiment_scope": "full_admin_graph", |
| 113 | + "feature_names": [ |
| 114 | + "bias", |
| 115 | + "action_increase_green_infrastructure", |
| 116 | + "action_traffic_emission_control", |
| 117 | + "action_add_community_service", |
| 118 | + "action_other", |
| 119 | + "intensity", |
| 120 | + "target_heat_risk", |
| 121 | + "target_air_pollution_exposure", |
| 122 | + "target_service_gap", |
| 123 | + "target_equity", |
| 124 | + "target_livability_gap", |
| 125 | + "target_degree_norm", |
| 126 | + "target_travel_time_min_norm", |
| 127 | + "target_road_segment_count_norm", |
| 128 | + "target_road_length_km_norm", |
| 129 | + "target_mean_road_speed_kmh_norm", |
| 130 | + "target_capacity_norm", |
| 131 | + "target_essential_norm", |
| 132 | + "target_travel_time_inverse_norm", |
| 133 | + "mask_heat_risk", |
| 134 | + "mask_air_pollution", |
| 135 | + "mask_service_gap", |
| 136 | + "step_index_norm" |
| 137 | + ], |
| 138 | + "full_admin_scope_guard": { |
| 139 | + "available_action_count": 1137, |
| 140 | + "failed_count_fields": [], |
| 141 | + "graph_edge_count": 7932, |
| 142 | + "graph_node_count": 1017, |
| 143 | + "passed": true, |
| 144 | + "required_counts": { |
| 145 | + "available_action_count": 1137, |
| 146 | + "graph_edge_count": 7932, |
| 147 | + "graph_node_count": 1017, |
| 148 | + "transition_count": 6817, |
| 149 | + "transition_row_count": 6817 |
| 150 | + }, |
| 151 | + "required_scope": "full_admin_graph", |
| 152 | + "transition_count": 6817, |
| 153 | + "transition_row_count": 6817 |
| 154 | + }, |
| 155 | + "holdout_summary": { |
| 156 | + "first_holdout_index": 6, |
| 157 | + "holdout_count": 973, |
| 158 | + "holdout_stride": 7, |
| 159 | + "last_holdout_index": 6810, |
| 160 | + "ridge": 0.001, |
| 161 | + "row_count": 6817, |
| 162 | + "train_count": 5844 |
| 163 | + }, |
| 164 | + "observed_policy_outcome_superiority_claim": false, |
| 165 | + "remaining_gates": [ |
| 166 | + "observed_policy_outcome_holdout_required", |
| 167 | + "causal_policy_effect_validation_required", |
| 168 | + "external_cross_city_or_cross_time_holdout_required", |
| 169 | + "authoritative_operational_data_closure_required" |
| 170 | + ], |
| 171 | + "schema": "uwm.core_action_conditioned_dynamics_benchmark.v1", |
| 172 | + "supported_claim": "core_action_conditioned_dynamics_beats_static_and_no_action_baselines", |
| 173 | + "target_names": [ |
| 174 | + "reward", |
| 175 | + "heat_risk_delta", |
| 176 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta", |
| 177 | + "service_accessibility_delta", |
| 178 | + "equity_delta", |
| 179 | + "livability_delta" |
| 180 | + ], |
| 181 | + "variant_metrics": { |
| 182 | + "full_action_state_graph": { |
| 183 | + "feature_policy": "all_action_state_graph_features", |
| 184 | + "mae_by_target": { |
| 185 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": 2.3891e-05, |
| 186 | + "equity_delta": 2.3583e-05, |
| 187 | + "heat_risk_delta": 4.7398e-05, |
| 188 | + "livability_delta": 2.8648e-05, |
| 189 | + "reward": 3.2363e-05, |
| 190 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 7.0409e-05 |
| 191 | + }, |
| 192 | + "model_class": "linear_ridge_multi_output_dynamics" |
| 193 | + }, |
| 194 | + "no_action_signal": { |
| 195 | + "feature_policy": "action_type_intensity_and_mask_signal_zeroed", |
| 196 | + "mae_by_target": { |
| 197 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": 0.000133698, |
| 198 | + "equity_delta": 3.3746e-05, |
| 199 | + "heat_risk_delta": 0.000166544, |
| 200 | + "livability_delta": 4.9349e-05, |
| 201 | + "reward": 5.0925e-05, |
| 202 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 0.000166277 |
| 203 | + }, |
| 204 | + "model_class": "linear_ridge_multi_output_dynamics" |
| 205 | + }, |
| 206 | + "no_graph_degree": { |
| 207 | + "feature_policy": "target_graph_degree_zeroed_diagnostic", |
| 208 | + "mae_by_target": { |
| 209 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": 2.1797e-05, |
| 210 | + "equity_delta": 4.7498e-05, |
| 211 | + "heat_risk_delta": 4.6674e-05, |
| 212 | + "livability_delta": 4.908e-05, |
| 213 | + "reward": 6.8092e-05, |
| 214 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 0.000132615 |
| 215 | + }, |
| 216 | + "model_class": "linear_ridge_multi_output_dynamics" |
| 217 | + }, |
| 218 | + "shuffled_action_signal": { |
| 219 | + "feature_policy": "action_type_intensity_and_mask_signal_roll_shuffled", |
| 220 | + "mae_by_target": { |
| 221 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": 0.000133643, |
| 222 | + "equity_delta": 3.3773e-05, |
| 223 | + "heat_risk_delta": 0.000166535, |
| 224 | + "livability_delta": 4.9408e-05, |
| 225 | + "reward": 5.0954e-05, |
| 226 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 0.000166308 |
| 227 | + }, |
| 228 | + "model_class": "linear_ridge_multi_output_dynamics" |
| 229 | + }, |
| 230 | + "train_mean_static": { |
| 231 | + "feature_policy": "train_target_mean_static_baseline", |
| 232 | + "mae_by_target": { |
| 233 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": 0.00019195, |
| 234 | + "equity_delta": 0.000112498, |
| 235 | + "heat_risk_delta": 0.000515613, |
| 236 | + "livability_delta": 0.000241026, |
| 237 | + "reward": 0.00222562, |
| 238 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 0.000278574 |
| 239 | + }, |
| 240 | + "target_mean_by_target": { |
| 241 | + "air_pollution_exposure_delta": -0.000531833, |
| 242 | + "equity_delta": 0.000611277, |
| 243 | + "heat_risk_delta": -0.001606649, |
| 244 | + "livability_delta": 0.001043579, |
| 245 | + "reward": -0.000835556, |
| 246 | + "service_accessibility_delta": 0.001026408 |
| 247 | + } |
| 248 | + } |
| 249 | + } |
| 250 | +} |
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