fdry_weighted_sim_v3.py

"""
v3: Supermajority model. Slash requires:
1. Minimum quorum of total FDRY-weighted feedback
2. >67% of weighted feedback is negative
"""
import numpy as np
np.random.seed(42)

FDRY_SUPPLY = 1_000_000
MONTHS = 24

def simulate(n_honest_ix=15, n_honest_con=100, n_atk=0, atk_type="",
             atk_fdry=10000, routes_per=500, quorum=50000, supermajority=0.67):
    agents = []
    routes = []
    rid = 0
    ix_fdry = (FDRY_SUPPLY * 0.4) / n_honest_ix
    con_fdry = (FDRY_SUPPLY * 0.3) / n_honest_con

    for i in range(n_honest_ix):
        agents.append({'id':i,'fdry':ix_fdry,'ix':True,'mal':False})
        for _ in range(routes_per):
            routes.append({'id':rid,'owner':i,'working':True}); rid+=1
    for i in range(n_honest_con):
        agents.append({'id':n_honest_ix+i,'fdry':con_fdry,'ix':False,'mal':False})
    for i in range(n_atk):
        aid = n_honest_ix+n_honest_con+i
        is_ix = atk_type in ['self_inflate','cartel']
        agents.append({'id':aid,'fdry':atk_fdry,'ix':is_ix,'mal':True})
        if is_ix:
            for _ in range(routes_per):
                routes.append({'id':rid,'owner':aid,'working':True}); rid+=1

    total_fdry = sum(a['fdry'] for a in agents)
    atk_pct = sum(a['fdry'] for a in agents if a['mal'])/total_fdry*100
    false_slashes = 0; honest_slashed = 0; legit_slashes = 0

    for month in range(MONTHS):
        for r in routes:
            if r['working'] and np.random.random() < 0.0375:
                r['working'] = False
        # Honest maintain
        for r in routes:
            if not r['working']:
                ix = next((a for a in agents if a['id']==r['owner']),None)
                if ix and not ix['mal']: r['working']=True

        for r in routes:
            wpos=0.0; wneg=0.0
            # Honest consumers
            for a in agents:
                if a['mal'] or a['ix']: continue
                if np.random.random() < 150/len(routes):
                    if r['working']: wpos+=a['fdry']
                    else: wneg+=a['fdry']
            # Honest indexers (not own)
            for a in agents:
                if a['mal'] or not a['ix'] or a['id']==r['owner']: continue
                if np.random.random() < 60/len(routes):
                    if r['working']: wpos+=a['fdry']
                    else: wneg+=a['fdry']
            # Attackers
            for a in agents:
                if not a['mal']: continue
                if atk_type=="sabotage" and r['owner']==0:
                    wneg+=a['fdry']
                elif atk_type=="self_inflate" and r['owner']==a['id']:
                    wpos+=a['fdry']
                elif atk_type=="cartel":
                    if any(a2['mal'] and a2['id']==r['owner'] for a2 in agents):
                        wpos+=a['fdry']
                    elif r['owner']==0:
                        wneg+=a['fdry']

            total_w = wpos+wneg
            if total_w >= quorum and wneg/total_w >= supermajority:
                ix = next((a for a in agents if a['id']==r['owner']),None)
                if ix and ix['fdry']>0:
                    slash=0.01*ix['fdry']; ix['fdry']-=slash
                    if ix['mal']: pass
                    else:
                        honest_slashed+=slash
                        if r['working']: false_slashes+=1
                        else: legit_slashes+=1

    quality = sum(1 for r in routes if r['working'])/len(routes)
    return {'quality':quality,'false':false_slashes,'legit':legit_slashes,
            'honest_lost':honest_slashed,'atk_pct':atk_pct}

def run(name,**kw):
    r=simulate(**kw)
    s="YES ⚠️" if r['false']>0 else "NO ✓"
    print(f"  {name:<50} q={r['quality']:.3f} false={r['false']:<5} legit={r['legit']:<5} "
          f"honest_lost={r['honest_lost']:>8,.0f} atk={r['atk_pct']:.1f}% {s}")

print("="*110)
print("FDRY-WEIGHTED v3: SUPERMAJORITY MODEL")
print("Slash requires: quorum ≥ Q of total weighted feedback AND ≥67% negative")
print("="*110)

print(f"\nFDRY: 1M supply | 15 honest indexers (26.7K each) | 100 consumers (3K each)")

print("\n--- BASELINE ---")
run("Healthy equilibrium")

print("\n--- SABOTAGE (quorum=50K, supermajority=67%) ---")
run("1% saboteur (10K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=10000)
run("5% saboteur (50K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=50000)
run("20% saboteur (200K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=200000)
run("50% saboteur (500K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=500000)

print("\n--- CARTEL 3x (quorum=50K, supermajority=67%) ---")
run("3% cartel (10K each)",n_atk=3,atk_type="cartel",atk_fdry=10000)
run("15% cartel (50K each)",n_atk=3,atk_type="cartel",atk_fdry=50000)
run("30% cartel (100K each)",n_atk=3,atk_type="cartel",atk_fdry=100000)

print("\n--- SELF-INFLATE (quorum=50K, supermajority=67%) ---")
run("1% inflate (10K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="self_inflate",atk_fdry=10000)
run("20% inflate (200K)",n_atk=1,atk_type="self_inflate",atk_fdry=200000)

print("\n--- QUORUM SENSITIVITY (50K saboteur) ---")
for q in [10000,25000,50000,100000,200000]:
    run(f"quorum={q:>7,}",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=50000,quorum=q)

print("\n--- SUPERMAJORITY SENSITIVITY (50K saboteur, quorum=50K) ---")
for sm in [0.51,0.60,0.67,0.75,0.80,0.90]:
    run(f"supermajority={sm:.0%}",n_atk=1,atk_type="sabotage",atk_fdry=50000,supermajority=sm)

print("\n" + "="*110)
print("SUMMARY")
print("="*110)