fix(polymarket): correct NO-side Kelly sizing + gate live orders on owner address

Two correctness fixes flagged by Codex review on PR #57.

P1 — polymarketAutonomy.ts NO-side sizing:
  estimateSizeForRiskBudget() expects the win probability of the
  *purchased* token, but the autonomy loop was always passing
  `best.fairValueEstimate` which is the YES probability. For
  `best.side === "no"` candidates that reverses Kelly: a contrarian
  NO on a 93% YES market got sized as if NO had ~80% win probability,
  producing wildly oversized live orders. Flip the probability for
  NO before sizing.

P2 — polymarketAuth.ts placement gate:
  When POLYMARKET_OWNER_ADDRESS is unset, syncPolymarketPositions()
  silently no-ops. Live orders still went through, but the exit
  monitor never saw the resulting positions — no auto-close, no
  trailing stop, no drift-close. Block live placement until the env
  var is set. Failing closed beats trading positions we can't
  reconcile.

https://claude.ai/code/session_01To82bdNQsUtCeAyGJFLQc3

Author: claude

server/_core/polymarketAuth.ts

@@ -213,6 +213,22 @@ export async function placePolymarketOrder(
       error: "Polymarket wallet private key + funder address required for order signing",
     };
   }
+  // Gate live placement on POLYMARKET_OWNER_ADDRESS being set.  Without it,
+  // syncPolymarketPositions() silently no-ops, so newly opened live positions
+  // are invisible to the exit monitor (no auto-close, no trailing stop, no
+  // drift-close detection).  Failing closed here is safer than placing an
+  // order we can't reconcile.
+  if (!ENV.polymarketOwnerAddress) {
+    return {
+      success: false,
+      error:
+        "POLYMARKET_OWNER_ADDRESS is not set — live placement blocked.  " +
+        "Without the EOA proxy address, position-sync cannot reconcile new " +
+        "positions and the exit monitor would never see them.  Set the " +
+        "env var to your Polymarket wallet address (the 0x... shown on " +
+        "your account page) and redeploy.",
+    };
+  }
   try {
     const { buildPolymarketClobClient, submitSignedPolymarketOrder } = await import(
       "./polymarketSigner"

server/_core/polymarketAutonomy.ts

@@ -616,9 +616,16 @@ export async function runPolymarketAutonomousTrading(
     bankroll
   );
 
+  // estimateSizeForRiskBudget expects the win probability of the *purchased*
+  // token, not the YES probability.  For NO trades the signal's
+  // fairValueEstimate is still the YES probability, so flip it before
+  // sizing — otherwise a contrarian NO on a 93% YES market gets sized as
+  // if NO has ~80% win probability and the live order is wildly oversized.
+  const purchasedTokenProb =
+    best.side === "no" ? 1 - best.fairValueEstimate : best.fairValueEstimate;
   const rawSize = estimateSizeForRiskBudget(
     bankroll,
-    best.fairValueEstimate,
+    purchasedTokenProb,
     best.limitPrice,
     MAX_POLYMARKET_ORDER_USDC,
     0.25