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37 | 37 | "id": "0c4f03f8", |
38 | 38 | "metadata": { |
39 | 39 | "execution": { |
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44 | 44 | } |
45 | 45 | }, |
46 | 46 | "outputs": [], |
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134 | 134 | "id": "08de7530", |
135 | 135 | "metadata": { |
136 | 136 | "execution": { |
137 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.057951Z", |
138 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.057805Z", |
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141 | 141 | } |
142 | 142 | }, |
143 | 143 | "outputs": [ |
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296 | 296 | "id": "8496ad42", |
297 | 297 | "metadata": { |
298 | 298 | "execution": { |
299 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.169287Z", |
300 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.169199Z", |
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303 | 303 | } |
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305 | 305 | "outputs": [ |
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337 | 337 | "id": "77f02fec", |
338 | 338 | "metadata": { |
339 | 339 | "execution": { |
340 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.192880Z", |
341 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.192798Z", |
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343 | | - "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.261968Z" |
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344 | 344 | } |
345 | 345 | }, |
346 | 346 | "outputs": [ |
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395 | 395 | "id": "cd8bb89e", |
396 | 396 | "metadata": { |
397 | 397 | "execution": { |
398 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.263388Z", |
399 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:25:09.263296Z", |
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404 | 404 | "outputs": [ |
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537 | 537 | "id": "823fbfb7", |
538 | 538 | "metadata": { |
539 | 539 | "execution": { |
540 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:18.141419Z", |
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543 | | - "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-31T17:25:21.128906Z" |
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545 | 545 | }, |
546 | 546 | "outputs": [ |
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573 | 573 | "id": "5f8e0c4b", |
574 | 574 | "metadata": { |
575 | 575 | "execution": { |
576 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:25:21.130387Z", |
577 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:25:21.130295Z", |
578 | | - "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-31T17:26:13.586001Z", |
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756 | 756 | "id": "9a902d30", |
757 | 757 | "metadata": { |
758 | 758 | "execution": { |
759 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:26:13.587561Z", |
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803 | 803 | "id": "34cfb285", |
804 | 804 | "metadata": { |
805 | 805 | "execution": { |
806 | | - "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-31T17:26:14.442035Z", |
807 | | - "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-31T17:26:14.441954Z", |
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809 | | - "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-31T17:26:32.647808Z" |
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812 | 812 | "outputs": [ |
|
831 | 831 | "# ...and it's not just unbiased: under FLAT effects with a clean tail, the clean-tail 2x2\n", |
832 | 832 | "# also detects a smaller lift than CS (it pools the whole tail into one tight contrast).\n", |
833 | 833 | "def paired_power_tail(cohorts, lift, n_sims=250, seed0=4000):\n", |
834 | | - " rs = min(cohorts)\n", |
| 834 | + " rs, ts = min(cohorts), max(cohorts) # clean tail starts after the last wave\n", |
835 | 835 | " rej_tail, rej_cs = [], []\n", |
836 | 836 | " for i in range(n_sims):\n", |
837 | 837 | " p = make_panel(cohorts, lift, seed0 + i, growth=0.0) # flat effects\n", |
838 | | - " rej_tail.append(fit_2x2(p, rs, tail_start=tail_start)[3]) # clean-tail 2x2\n", |
| 838 | + " rej_tail.append(fit_2x2(p, rs, tail_start=ts)[3]) # clean-tail 2x2\n", |
839 | 839 | " rej_cs.append(fit_cs(p)[3])\n", |
840 | 840 | " return np.mean(rej_tail), np.mean(rej_cs)\n", |
841 | 841 | "\n", |
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