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_freeze/flatline-forecaster/execute-results/html.json

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_freeze/flatline-forecaster/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-12-1.svg

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_freeze/preprocessing-and-models/execute-results/html.json

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_freeze/sliding-forecasters/execute-results/html.json

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_freeze/tidymodels-intro/execute-results/html.json

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_freeze/tidymodels-regression/execute-results/html.json

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flatline-forecaster.qmd

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@@ -6,8 +6,6 @@ The flatline forecaster is a very simple forecasting model intended for `epi_df`
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```{r}
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#| echo: false
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#| message: false
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#| warning: false
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source("_common.R")
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```
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### The basic mechanics of the flatline forecaster
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The simplest way to create and train a flatline forecaster to predict the d
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eath rate one week into the future, is to input the `epi_df` and the name of
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The simplest way to create and train a flatline forecaster to predict the death rate one week into the future, is to input the `epi_df` and the name of
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the column from it that we want to predict in the `flatline_forecaster` function.
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```{r}

preprocessing-and-models.qmd

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```{r}
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#| echo: false
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#| warning: false
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source("_common.R")
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```
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Dec 31, 2021 in some U.S. states.
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We wish to predict the 7-day ahead death counts with lagged cases and deaths.
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Furthermore, we will let each state be a dummy variable. Using differential
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Furthermore, we will include the categorical variable, *states*, as dummy variables. Using different
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intercept coefficients, we can allow for an intercept shift between states.
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One possible model takes the form

sliding-forecasters.qmd

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```{r}
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#| echo: false
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#| warning: false
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source("_common.R")
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```
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tidymodels-intro.qmd

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```{r}
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#| echo: false
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#| warning: false
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source("_common.R")
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```
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tidymodels-regression.qmd

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```{r}
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#| echo: false
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#| warning: false
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source("_common.R")
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```
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@@ -256,7 +255,7 @@ To read more about formula syntax, see `formula()`.
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Similar to how we were able to add an interaction term using recipes, we can also perform a transformation as a pre-processing step. The function used for this is `step_mutate()` (which acts like `dplyr::mutate()`).
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Note that, in general, if you are specifying a recipe aim to keep as much of the pre-processing in your recipe specification as possible. This helps to ensure that the transformation will be applied to new data consistently.
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Note that, in general, when specifying a recipe, we aim to keep as much of the pre-processing in the recipe specification as possible. This helps to ensure that the transformation will be applied to new data consistently.
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```{r}
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rec_spec_pow2 <- recipe(bill_length_mm ~ bill_depth_mm, data = penguins) %>%

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