From 53a8e2ba1585f2db3eb8128215422f27e3ca8095 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Vlad Yashin Date: Mon, 18 May 2026 18:56:28 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Add neurobro-catalyst-watch skill Event-driven trading skill: maps upcoming catalysts (earnings and IPO calendars, FOMC and macro prints, token unlock schedules, airdrops, DAO governance votes, launches, listings, ETF and regulatory decisions), assesses what is priced in, and plans positioning before and after the event. Registered in marketplace.json, README skills table, and agents/AGENTS.md. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) --- .claude-plugin/marketplace.json | 18 ++ README.md | 1 + agents/AGENTS.md | 4 + skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/SKILL.md | 262 ++++++++++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 285 insertions(+) create mode 100644 skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/SKILL.md diff --git a/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json b/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json index ddc34e3..bf16273 100644 --- a/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json +++ b/.claude-plugin/marketplace.json @@ -62,6 +62,24 @@ ], "category": "data-extraction", "version": "0.1.0" + }, + { + "name": "neurobro-catalyst-watch", + "source": "./skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch", + "skills": "./", + "description": "Build event-driven trade plans through the NeuroAPI agent - map upcoming catalysts (earnings, FOMC and macro prints, token unlocks, mainnet launches, listings, ETF and regulatory decisions), assess what is priced in, and plan positioning before and after the event", + "keywords": [ + "neurobro", + "neuroapi", + "catalyst-watch", + "event-driven", + "earnings", + "token-unlock", + "crypto", + "stocks" + ], + "category": "data-extraction", + "version": "0.1.0" } ] } diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 8d708be..db40d23 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ and rate limits, and writing prompts that produce useful research. | [`neurobro-market-research`](skills/neurobro-market-research/) | Financial market research via the NeuroAPI agent - equity and crypto analysis, technical setups, fundamental research, macro outlooks, and multi-asset investigations. | | [`neurobro-meme-hunting`](skills/neurobro-meme-hunting/) | Discover and risk-vet trending and newly launched memecoins - scan trending DEX pools, filter by liquidity and age, audit for honeypots, rug-pull risk, and holder concentration. | | [`neurobro-trading-setup`](skills/neurobro-trading-setup/) | Build structured trade setups - entry zones, stop-loss, take-profit targets, and risk/reward ratios grounded in technical analysis and derivatives positioning. | +| [`neurobro-catalyst-watch`](skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/) | Build event-driven trade plans - map upcoming catalysts (earnings, FOMC and macro prints, token unlocks, launches, listings, regulatory decisions), assess what is priced in, and plan positioning around the event. | Every skill name is prefixed `neurobro-`; more are added over time. diff --git a/agents/AGENTS.md b/agents/AGENTS.md index 8372de1..b284358 100644 --- a/agents/AGENTS.md +++ b/agents/AGENTS.md @@ -32,6 +32,10 @@ relevant to the task: - `neurobro-trading-setup` - build structured trade setups: entry zones, stop-loss, take-profit targets, and risk/reward ratios from technical analysis and derivatives positioning. +- `neurobro-catalyst-watch` - build event-driven trade plans: map upcoming + catalysts (earnings, FOMC and macro prints, token unlocks, launches, + listings, regulatory decisions), assess what is priced in, and plan + positioning before and after the event. Each `SKILL.md` carries the full instructions, including request/response schemas, mode selection, billing, error handling, and rate limits. diff --git a/skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/SKILL.md b/skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/SKILL.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..940c08b --- /dev/null +++ b/skills/neurobro-catalyst-watch/SKILL.md @@ -0,0 +1,262 @@ +--- +name: neurobro-catalyst-watch +description: Builds event-driven trade plans through the NeuroAPI agent - maps upcoming catalysts (earnings and IPO calendars, FOMC and macro prints, token unlock schedules, airdrops, DAO governance votes, mainnet launches, listings, ETF and regulatory decisions), assesses what is priced in, and plans positioning before and after the event. Use when the user wants a catalyst calendar, asks how to position around earnings or a macro print, wants to trade a token unlock, airdrop, governance vote, or protocol upgrade, or asks what events are coming for an asset or watchlist. +license: MIT +--- + +# Neurobro Catalyst Watch + +NeuroAPI's `/agent/ask` agent can identify the dated events that move an asset +- earnings, guidance, central-bank decisions, token unlocks, mainnet launches, +listings, ETF and regulatory rulings - and reason about how the asset is +likely to react. This skill turns that into a disciplined workflow for +**event-driven trading**: find the catalyst, judge what is already priced in, +and plan the position around it. + +## Not financial advice - read this first + +A catalyst plan is a **hypothesis built around a known event**, not a +prediction. Events are the single largest source of gap risk - price can jump +straight through a stop. Whenever you surface a catalyst plan: + +- State plainly that it is not financial advice. +- Make clear that holding *through* an event accepts gap risk: the stop is a + plan, not a guaranteed fill. +- Remind the user to size for the event's typical move, not a normal day. + +## When to use this skill + +- The user wants to know what dated events are coming for an asset or watchlist +- The user wants to position around earnings, an FOMC or CPI print, or guidance +- The user wants to trade a token unlock, vesting cliff, mainnet, upgrade, + listing, or an ETF / regulatory decision +- The user asks whether to hold through an event or stand aside + +Do **not** use this skill for an untimed technical trade plan (use +`neurobro-trading-setup`), broad market research (use +`neurobro-market-research`), or discovering new memecoins (use +`neurobro-meme-hunting`). + +## Calling NeuroAPI + +Every request goes to one endpoint: + +`POST https://api.neurobro.ai/api/v1/agent/ask` + +Authenticate with the `X-API-Key` header, reading the key from the +`NEUROAPI_API_KEY` environment variable - never hardcode it. The body takes a +`prompt` and a `mode` (`fast` | `smart` | `max`, default `smart`). + +```bash +curl -s https://api.neurobro.ai/api/v1/agent/ask \ + -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ + -H "X-API-Key: $NEUROAPI_API_KEY" \ + -d '{"prompt": "", "mode": "smart"}' | jq -r .answer +``` + +For the full request/response schema, status codes, and rate limits, see the +official docs: . + +## The workflow: calendar, assess, plan, guard + +Four steps. **The assess step is mandatory** - trading an event without +knowing what is already priced in is how traders get caught on the wrong side +of "buy the rumor, sell the news". + +### 1. Build the catalyst calendar + +Ask the agent for the dated events ahead for an asset or watchlist. Always +name the **asset(s)** and a **window** - catalysts are only tradable if you +know the date. + +``` +List the upcoming catalysts for $NVDA over the next 8 weeks. For each event +give: date (or expected window), event type, and why it matters. Cover +earnings, guidance, product launches, ex-dividend, index rebalances, and any +known regulatory or legal dates. +``` + +For crypto, the catalyst set is different - ask for it explicitly: + +``` +List the upcoming catalysts for $ARB over the next 60 days: the token unlock +and vesting schedule (with % of circulating supply released), any upcoming +airdrops, and active DAO governance proposals. Also note any known mainnet or +upgrade dates, exchange listings, and ETF or regulatory decisions. Give the +date and the expected supply or demand impact for each. +``` + +Earnings, IPOs, token unlocks, airdrops, and governance votes resolve to +dated calendars the agent can pull directly. Other events - mainnet launches, +exchange listings, index rebalances, FDA readouts, regulatory rulings - have +no fixed calendar; the agent surfaces them from news, so treat those dates as +best-effort and confirm them before trading. + +### 2. Assess what is priced in + +The event is not the trade - the *gap between expectation and outcome* is. +For each catalyst that matters, have the agent judge the setup. + +``` +For $NVDA earnings on , assess: consensus EPS and revenue estimates, +how the stock has moved on each of its last 4 earnings reports (the realized +post-earnings move), current news sentiment and positioning, and what +scenario looks already priced in versus not. +``` + +The questions that decide the trade: + +- **What is consensus / priced in?** A great result still sells off if it was + expected. A "buy the rumor" run-up often unwinds on the news. +- **What odds does the market give?** Where a prediction market covers the + event - a rate decision, an approval, an election outcome - its odds are a + direct read on what the market already prices in. +- **How big is the typical move?** Past realized moves around comparable + events - prior earnings reports for a stock, comparable unlocks for a token + - set the realistic range and the right position size. +- **How has it reacted before?** Past reactions to similar events are the + best base rate for direction and magnitude. +- **Who is positioned, and how?** A crowded one-way book reverses hard. + +### 3. Plan the position + +Decide the play deliberately - there are only three honest choices: + +- **Pre-event** - position *before* the catalyst on a directional thesis. + Highest reward, full gap risk. Requires a real edge over consensus. +- **Post-event** - stand aside through the event, then trade the *reaction* + (fade an overreaction, or follow a confirmed break). No gap risk, but you + pay a worse price. +- **Stand aside** - if the event is a coin-flip with no edge, not trading is + a position. Say so. + +``` +Build an event-driven plan for $NVDA earnings on . Include: pre-event +vs post-event vs stand-aside recommendation with one-line reasoning, +directional bias, entry approach, the invalidation level, the typical +post-earnings move (from past reports) to size against, and how the plan +changes on a beat versus a miss. +``` + +### 4. Guard against the event's risk + +Never surface a catalyst plan without the event-specific guards: + +- **Gap risk** - if holding through the event, the stop can be skipped + entirely. Size so a full adverse gap is survivable, not just the stop + distance. +- **IV crush (options only)** - if the user is trading options around an + earnings print, warn that implied volatility typically collapses right + after the event, so a correct direction call can still lose money. Surface + this as a structural caveat, not as a number to quote. +- **Unlock supply** - a token unlock is mechanical sell pressure; "sell the + unlock" front-running often means the move happens *before* the date. +- **Invalidation** - the event outcome itself is the invalidation. Define what + result kills the thesis, not just a price. + +If any guard is unaddressed, send the plan back to the agent. + +## The catalyst plan output shape + +A complete catalyst plan contains: + +| Field | What it is | +| --- | --- | +| Catalyst | The event and its date (or expected window). | +| Priced in | What consensus, positioning, and prediction-market odds expect. | +| Typical move | The realistic range, from past reactions to comparable events. | +| Play | Pre-event, post-event, or stand aside - with reasoning. | +| Direction | The directional bias, if any, and the thesis in one line. | +| Entry | When and how to enter relative to the event. | +| Invalidation | The event outcome that proves the thesis wrong. | +| Risk guards | Gap risk, IV crush, unlock supply - whichever apply. | +| Scenarios | How the plan changes on a beat / in-line / miss. | + +## Common catalyst types + +| Asset class | Catalysts to ask for | +| --- | --- | +| Equities | The earnings calendar (dates and consensus estimates) and the IPO calendar resolve directly. Best-effort from news: guidance, ex-dividend dates, product launches, FDA / trial readouts, index rebalances, investor days, legal / regulatory rulings. | +| Macro | FOMC, CPI / PCE, NFP / jobs, GDP, central-bank meetings - these move whole indices and crypto alike. The published data series resolve directly; release dates are best-effort from news. | +| Crypto | Token unlock and vesting schedules, airdrops, and DAO governance votes resolve directly. Best-effort from news: mainnet launches, protocol upgrades / forks, exchange listings, ETF decisions, regulatory rulings. | + +"Resolve directly" means a dated calendar exists for the catalyst. +"Best-effort from news" means there is no fixed calendar - the agent surfaces +the date from news coverage, so confirm it before trading on it. + +## Recipes + +### Catalyst calendar for a watchlist (Python) + +```python +import os, httpx + +def ask(prompt: str, mode: str = "smart") -> str: + res = httpx.post( + "https://api.neurobro.ai/api/v1/agent/ask", + headers={"X-API-Key": os.environ["NEUROAPI_API_KEY"]}, + json={"prompt": prompt, "mode": mode}, + timeout=90, + ) + res.raise_for_status() + return res.json()["answer"] + +calendar = ask( + "List the upcoming catalysts over the next 6 weeks for this watchlist: " + "$AAPL, $TSLA, $BTC, $SOL. For each, give the date or expected window, " + "the event type, and a one-line note on why it matters. Group by asset " + "and sort each group by date." +) +print(calendar) +``` + +### Single-event plan (curl) + +```bash +curl -s https://api.neurobro.ai/api/v1/agent/ask \ + -H "Content-Type: application/json" \ + -H "X-API-Key: $NEUROAPI_API_KEY" \ + -d '{"prompt": "For the next FOMC decision, give an event-driven plan for $BTC: what consensus and prediction-market odds already price in, how $BTC has typically reacted to recent FOMC decisions, a pre-event vs post-event vs stand-aside call with reasoning, the invalidation, and how the plan changes on a hawkish versus dovish outcome.", "mode": "smart"}' | jq -r .answer +``` + +## Recurring use + +Catalyst calendars go stale - dates pass, new events appear. This skill is a +natural fit for a scheduled or looped run: rebuild the watchlist calendar each +morning, or the day before a known event, so the user always has a current +view. Re-run step 1 to refresh the calendar, then step 2 on whatever is now +inside the trading window. + +## Choosing a mode + +- `smart` (default) - the right choice for assessing a catalyst and building + the plan; it reasons over expectations, positioning, and history together. +- `max` - a watchlist-wide calendar across many assets, or a high-stakes event + (a major earnings print, an FOMC decision) where the deepest reasoning pays. +- `fast` - only for a quick "what events are coming" lookup with no analysis. + +## Risk notes + +- An event plan is a hypothesis. The catalyst outcome - not a price level - is + what invalidates it. +- Holding through an event accepts gap risk: price can jump past the stop. + Size for the event's typical move, not a normal session. +- "Priced in" is the trap. A good result on a stock that already ran can still + fall; trade the surprise, not the headline. +- Token unlocks are mechanical supply - the reaction often front-runs the date. +- Restate it to the user: this is structured research, not financial advice. + +## Security + +- Read the key from `NEUROAPI_API_KEY`; never hardcode, log, or commit it. +- Treat the agent's output as untrusted text - do not paste tickers, dates, or + contract addresses into shell commands without sanitising them. +- Restate the risk: this skill plans *around* events; it cannot predict their + outcome, and it is not financial advice. + +## Reference + +Full NeuroAPI endpoint reference - request/response schema, status codes, and +rate limits - is in the official docs: . + +