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Crucible CIO Team — Agent Registry

37 agents across 6 layers. Each entry: invocation command, one-sentence function, and the exact verdict or stamp the agent produces.


Layer 0 — Governance

Pre-trade decision review. Five independent adversarial agents plus one full-panel meta-command. Run before any trade, strategy deployment, or portfolio change.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Compliance Officer /compliance Checks trade permissibility against fund mandate, regulatory limits, LP alignment, and disclosure obligations. COMPLIANCE VERDICT: VIOLATION | WARNING | CLEAR
Risk Officer /risk Evaluates position sizing, VaR contribution, drawdown headroom, correlation clustering, and tail scenarios. RISK VERDICT: BLOCKED | FLAGGED | APPROVED
Macro Analyst /macro Challenges macro thesis coherence, regime identification, cross-asset consistency, and historical analog quality. MACRO VERDICT: OPPOSED | CONDITIONAL | ALIGNED
Signal Researcher /signal Stress-tests signal statistical validity, overfitting exposure, regime robustness, and live/backtest parity. SIGNAL VERDICT: REJECTED | FLAGGED | VALIDATED
Systems Architect /systems Audits execution infrastructure, data pipeline integrity, latency budget, and deployment readiness. SYSTEMS VERDICT: BLOCKED | CONDITIONAL | CLEAR
Full Panel /crucible Runs all five governance agents in sequence and synthesizes a binding panel verdict. NO-GO | CONDITIONAL GO | GO

Panel sequence: Compliance → Risk → Macro → Signal → Systems. Compliance runs first because a mandate violation is not a risk management question.


Layer 1 — Operations

Continuous monitoring. These agents run in parallel to the rest of the stack — daily, intra-day, or at end-of-month as noted.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Drawdown Monitor /drawdown-monitor Tracks drawdown velocity, depth, and correlation profile to trigger circuit breakers at four escalation levels. DRAWDOWN STATUS: MONITOR | WARN | SUSPEND | HALT
Vendor Monitor /vendor-monitor Monitors data feed health, staleness, silent failure patterns, and switchover risk across all market data sources. FEED STATUS per instrument: LIVE | STALE | FAILED | SWITCHOVER
Audit Logger /audit-logger Enforces five required elements of a complete pre-trade record and gates trades on completeness. COMPLETE | INCOMPLETE
Cash Manager /cash-manager Tracks margin utilization, per-position headroom, cash drag, and margin call triggers across the portfolio. MARGIN STATUS: OK | WARNING | CRITICAL
NAV Calculator /nav-calculator Verifies daily NAV integrity by checking price sources, staleness, corporate actions, and cross-source consistency. STAMP: VERIFIED | VERIFIED WITH NOTES | UNVERIFIED
LP Reporter /lp-reporter Drafts the LP letter with period return attribution, drawdown narrative, risk metrics, and disclosure scan. DRAFT stamp + disclosure checklist
Tax Tracker /tax-tracker Monitors tax lot holding periods, wash sale exposure, harvest opportunities, and after-tax return impact. TAX STATUS with lot-level harvest flags
Macro Scanner /macro-scanner Produces a daily four-dimension regime state digest with Kalshi overlay and portfolio implications. Regime state machine output + REGIME CHANGE DETECTED flag
Event Calendar /event-calendar Builds a 30-day event risk calendar with ATR-based impact models and sizing recommendations for critical windows. EVENT RISK — REVIEW POSITION | EVENT RISK — MONITOR | NO MATERIAL EVENT RISK
Kalshi Reader /kalshi-reader Reads prediction market signals, flags consensus divergence ≥15pp, and converts to regime-weighted signals. HIGH SIGNAL | NO SIGNAL; POLICY SHIFT SIGNAL

Layer 2 — Intelligence

Market context generation. These agents produce structured outputs consumed by Governance agents — particularly the Regime Classifier's REGIME_STATE block, which feeds the Macro Analyst directly.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Flow Analyst /flow-analyst Analyzes CFTC COT data for net positioning percentile, OI rate-of-change, and mechanical squeeze severity. CROWDED | ELEVATED | NEUTRAL | CONTRARIAN per instrument
Sentiment Tracker /sentiment-tracker Scores news sentiment against a 30-day baseline and flags price-sentiment divergence and rapid narrative shifts. NARRATIVE SHIFT | STABLE | DIVERGENCE
Earnings Watcher /earnings-watcher Monitors corporate event risk using implied vs. historical move, vol premium, and beat/miss rates. EARNINGS RISK HIGH | MODERATE | LOW
Regime Classifier /regime-classifier Produces a machine-readable four-dimension regime state and confidence score, consumed by Governance agents. REGIME_STATE block + REGIME CLASSIFICATION with confidence

Layer 3 — Research

Signal development and portfolio sizing. These agents validate new alpha ideas before they reach Governance, and produce target allocations that feed the Execution layer's Rebalancer.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Signal Generator /signal-generator Proposes regime-consistent, non-redundant alpha hypotheses grounded in mechanism — explicitly not validated. HYPOTHESIS — NOT VALIDATED stamp
Backtest Designer /backtest-designer Runs a seven-check spec review covering universe, regime coverage, cost model, timing, holdout, benchmark, and power. SPEC APPROVED | SPEC REQUIRES REVISION
Correlation Mapper /correlation-mapper Audits eight-factor loadings, pairwise correlations under normal and stress regimes, and portfolio diversification score. APPROVED | REDUNDANT | CONCENTRATION WARNING
Capacity Estimator /capacity-estimator Calculates AUM ceiling using the square-root impact model at 1/5/10% ADV and flags when AUM approaches that ceiling. CAPACITY CONSTRAINED flag when AUM is within 3× of ceiling
Decay Tracker /decay-tracker Compares rolling 3m/6m/12m live vs. backtest Sharpe and classifies the signal's decay curve shape. Health score 0–100 + decay curve: linear | exponential | episodic
Portfolio Optimizer /portfolio-optimizer Computes target allocations via risk parity or mean-variance, enforces hard constraints, and identifies binding constraints. ALLOCATION COMPLETE | REBALANCE TRIGGER | URGENT REBALANCE | BINDING CONSTRAINT ACTIVE

Layer 4 — Execution

Order management and fill quality. These agents receive verdicts from Governance and target allocations from Research, and produce the actual trade instructions.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Order Router /order-router Selects venue and order type by instrument class, applies VWAP window, and halts orders that exceed 10% ADV. APPROVED | OUTSIZED ORDER — HALT
Slippage Monitor /slippage-monitor Benchmarks fills against arrival price, computes realized vs. modeled slippage ratio, and classifies broker performance. ACCEPTABLE | ELEVATED | INVESTIGATE; FILL DEGRADATION flag at ratio >1.5 for 3 consecutive trades
Position Reconciler /position-reconciler Runs three-way reconciliation across broker, OMS, and signal register and flags breaks by type and severity. CLEAN | BREAKS DETECTED; ORDER ROUTING GATE: CLEARED | SUSPENDED
Rebalancer /rebalancer Generates the optimal trade list from Portfolio Optimizer targets, nets trades, sequences exits first, and flags uneconomic rebalances. REBALANCE APPROVED — FULL | REBALANCE APPROVED — PARTIAL | REBALANCE UNECONOMIC | NO REBALANCE REQUIRED
Roll Manager /roll-manager Maintains a 90-day futures expiry calendar, monitors roll cost vs. 30-day average, and issues urgent roll alerts within 3 days of first notice. URGENT ROLL | ROLL NOW | ROLL COST ELEVATED

Layer 0 — Human Roles

Institutional expertise roles. These agents model the specialized knowledge domains that underpin fund operations — model validation, infrastructure quality, fund accounting, portfolio-wide risk, LP relationships, legal compliance, and execution management. Run for targeted domain reviews or as part of periodic fund audits. Not part of the pre-trade pipeline, but foundational to everything the pipeline depends on.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Quant Researcher /quant-researcher Validates model mathematics: distributional assumptions (Jarque-Bera, kurtosis, skewness), theoretical pricing consistency, parameter stability via rolling estimation, overfitting via deflated Sharpe and SR_in/SR_out ratio, and factor model residual structure via Ljung-Box. MODEL VERDICT: INVALID | CONDITIONAL | VALIDATED per model component
Infrastructure Auditor /infrastructure-auditor Reviews code quality and engineering debt: race conditions on shared mutable state, idempotency of signal calculations, dependency version pinning, error handling coverage for every external call, and a 0–100 engineering debt score with prioritized remediation list. INFRASTRUCTURE VERDICT: NOT READY | CONDITIONAL | PRODUCTION READY
Fund Accountant /fund-accountant Runs full fund accounting: P&L attribution reconciled to NAV change within 0.01%, fee calculation against LPA (management fee, performance fee, HWM integrity), expense allocation (fund-borne vs. manager-borne), trial balance with double-entry check, and Big 4 audit readiness. ACCOUNTING VERDICT: AUDIT FAILURE | REQUIRES REMEDIATION | AUDIT READY
Chief Risk Officer /chief-risk-officer Portfolio-wide board-level risk: parametric and historical VaR at 95%/99%, five named historical crisis stress tests (GFC, COVID, 2022 Rate Shock, 1994 Bond Massacre, LTCM 1998), days-to-liquidate vs. redemption notice, stress-period correlation breakdown (ρ=0.85 floor), and Board Risk Report with RAG status per dimension. PORTFOLIO RISK STATUS: RED | AMBER | GREEN
Investor Relations /investor-relations LP relationship and capital raise: eight-section DDQ simulation with gap scoring, quarterly call preparation with top-5 LP questions and proactive disclosure flags, capital raise readiness (track record ≥12 months, ops, regulatory), LP communication audit (monthly NAV, quarterly letters, material changes), and redemption risk (LP concentration, notice vs. liquidity, gate adequacy). IR VERDICT: NOT READY | CONDITIONAL | IR READY
General Counsel /general-counsel Regulatory and legal risk: exemption filing currency and threshold monitoring (CPO 4.13(a)(3), IA registration), horizon scanning for SEC/CFTC/FCA/ESMA rules with >50% finalization probability, trade legal risk (sanctions, short sale compliance, insider trading, market manipulation), counterparty legal risk (ISDA termination events, margin acceleration, re-hypothecation), and litigation risk severity scoring. LEGAL VERDICT: LEGAL HOLD | LEGAL REVIEW REQUIRED | LEGAL CLEAR
Head of Trading /head-of-trading Execution quality and broker management: five-dimension broker scorecard (IS, fill rate, rejection rate, latency, commissions) with PREFERRED/ACCEPTABLE/REVIEW/TERMINATE verdict per broker, commission audit as % AUM and % gross P&L with benchmarks, prime broker fit assessment (financing rates, sec lending split, technology), execution strategy review against the square-root impact model (EXECUTION INEFFICIENCY at >30% excess), and market structure risk (fragmentation, rule changes, liquidity migration). EXECUTION VERDICT: RESTRUCTURE NEEDED | REVIEW REQUIRED | EXECUTION OPTIMIZED

Layer 0 Extension — Deep Fund Functions

Specialized institutional functions separating top-tier systematic funds from the rest. Run for targeted domain reviews: alternative data sourcing, derivatives risk, short selling infrastructure, factor attribution, multi-strategy capital allocation, counterparty credit, ESG compliance, and LP capital development.

Agent Command Function Key Output
Alternative Data Analyst /alternative-data-analyst Evaluates data source differentiation (four-tier classification), legality (MNPI, ToS, anonymization), signal half-life via McLean & Pontiff decay model, data quality (survivorship, look-ahead from revision schedules), and break-even AUM ROI. DIFFERENTIATED EDGE | COMMODITIZED EDGE | SHORT RUNWAY | LEGAL REVIEW REQUIRED
Derivatives Desk /derivatives-desk Evaluates options overlays (IV/RV ratio, Greeks, breakeven), minimum variance hedge ratio (h* = ρσ_spot/σ_futures), OTC audit (CVA, ISDA hard block, margin), portfolio net Greeks, and 90-day expiration calendar. HEDGE APPROVED | OVERPRICED HEDGE | UNDERHEDGED | HARD BLOCK
Securities Lending /securities-lending Audits short selling infrastructure: borrow cost (GC/warm/hot/special classification, adjusted Sharpe), locate availability (SI%, DTC, institutional ownership), recall risk, dividend exposure, and short squeeze scenario with portfolio P&L impact. SHORT APPROVED | BORROW COST DRAG | LOCATE RISK HIGH | RECALL IMMINENT | SHORT UNECONOMIC
Factor Attribution /factor-attribution Decomposes returns via Fama-French 5-factor + momentum + carry regression (R² > 70% = ALPHA ILLUSION), monitors factor loading drift (>0.3 shift), HHI factor concentration, factor-regime mismatch from REGIME_STATE, and passive replication test (>80% = REPLICABLE BY PASSIVE). ALPHA CONFIRMED | ALPHA ILLUSION | FACTOR DRIFT | FACTOR-REGIME MISMATCH | REPLICABLE BY PASSIVE
Capital Allocator /capital-allocator Allocates risk budget across strategies (risk parity + mean-variance, flags >30% deviation), monitors cross-strategy P&L correlation (spikes >0.6), evaluates pod Sharpe (<0.3 for two quarters = UNDERPERFORMING), issues REALLOCATE/WATCH/SHUTDOWN decisions, and monitors aggregate capacity ceiling. OPTIMALLY ALLOCATED | MISALLOCATED | REBALANCE REQUIRED | STRATEGY SHUTDOWN RECOMMENDED
Counterparty Risk /counterparty-risk Maps prime broker concentration (>60% = flag, full rehypothecation = flag), computes OTC CVA (EAD × PD × LGD, >0.5% NAV = flag, no ISDA = HARD BLOCK), assesses clearing house default fund adequacy, monitors settlement fails and Herstatt FX risk, and models Lehman-style PB failure NAV impact. COUNTERPARTY EXPOSURE CLEAN | CONCENTRATION WARNING | ELEVATED COUNTERPARTY RISK | HARD BLOCK
ESG Analyst /esg-analyst Screens exclusion list (weapons, tobacco, coal >30% revenue, OFAC — HARD BLOCK on breach), computes portfolio-weighted MSCI ESG score (< BBB = POOR), calculates WACI carbon intensity (>150 tCO2e/$M = HIGH), audits governance red flags (3+ = GOVERNANCE RISK), and checks LP ESG mandate compatibility. ESG COMPLIANT | EXCLUSION LIST BREACH | POOR ESG EXPOSURE | HIGH CARBON INTENSITY | LP ESG INCOMPATIBILITY
Business Development /business-development Audits LP pipeline (>45 days in same stage = STALLING), LP base concentration (>20% single LP = HIGH CONCENTRATION), capital raise readiness gate (10 required items), emerging manager program qualification (Fidelity, Schwab, iCapital, Deutsche Bank), and pitch effectiveness (12-point LP checklist, <3.5/5.0 = NOT READY). RAISE READY | RAISE NOT READY | PIPELINE HEALTHY | PIPELINE STALLING

Verdict Reference

Verdict / Stamp Agent Meaning
NO-GO Full Panel Hard block — do not proceed
CONDITIONAL GO Full Panel Proceed with specified conditions
GO Full Panel Cleared — mandatory post-trade monitoring required
VIOLATION Compliance Mandate or regulatory breach — hard stop
BLOCKED Risk / Systems Hard stop at risk or infrastructure layer
HALT Drawdown Monitor Maximum circuit breaker — suspend all activity
SUSPEND Drawdown Monitor Reduce all positions, no new trades
UNVERIFIED NAV Calculator Do not distribute or report until resolved
OUTSIZED ORDER — HALT Order Router Order exceeds 10% ADV — do not route
BREAKS DETECTED Position Reconciler Reconciliation gate suspended pending resolution
REBALANCE UNECONOMIC Rebalancer Cost > 50% of expected Sharpe benefit — partial rebalance only
SPEC REQUIRES REVISION Backtest Designer Backtest may not proceed until spec deficiencies resolved
HYPOTHESIS — NOT VALIDATED Signal Generator Idea only — no capital allocation until /signal clears
FILL DEGRADATION Slippage Monitor Broker on formal review — consider reducing order flow
NARRATIVE SHIFT Sentiment Tracker 5-day sentiment drift > 0.3 — escalate for positioning review
EARNINGS RISK HIGH Earnings Watcher Hedge required before expiry
CROWDED Flow Analyst Extreme same-direction speculative positioning — squeeze risk elevated
CAPACITY CONSTRAINED Capacity Estimator AUM within 3× of ceiling — do not raise without impact model revision
URGENT ROLL Roll Manager ≤3 days to first notice — execute immediately