Props Grading System - Fix Required

Date: December 4, 2025 Status: ❌ NOT OPERATIONAL Priority: MEDIUM (predictions work, but no performance tracking)

Root Cause Identified

The props grading system (results_tracker.py) was written for an older database schema that no longer exists.

Schema Mismatch

What the grading code expects:

player_props_lines
  - player_id
  - player_name
  - team
  - opponent
  - prop_type
  - market_line
  - date

player_props_results
  - player_id
  - date
  - prop_type
  - actual_value
  - result

What actually exists:

player_prop_predictions
  - id (INTEGER PRIMARY KEY)
  - prediction_date (TEXT)
  - player_name (TEXT)
  - team (TEXT)
  - opponent (TEXT)
  - prop_type (TEXT)
  - market_line (REAL)
  - predicted_value (REAL)
  - edge (REAL)
  - over_probability (REAL)
  - under_probability (REAL)
  - confidence (REAL)
  - recommendation (TEXT)
  - kelly_fraction (REAL)
  - sportsbook (TEXT)
  - game_id (TEXT)
  - model_predictions (TEXT/JSON)
  - generated_at (TEXT)
  - result (TEXT) -- NULL, needs grading
  - actual_value (REAL) -- NULL, needs grading
  - graded_at (TEXT) -- NULL, needs grading
  - created_at (TIMESTAMP)

Current Status

✅ Database path fixed: Changed from D:/backend/data/player_props.db to /root/sporttrader/backend/ml/predictions.db
❌ Table names wrong: Code looks for player_props_lines and player_props_results, but should use player_prop_predictions
❌ Column names different: Field mappings don't match
❌ 0 props graded out of 2,676 total

Fix Options

Option 1: Rewrite results_tracker.py (RECOMMENDED)

Time: 2-3 hours Complexity: Medium

Update results_tracker.py to:

Use correct table name: player_prop_predictions
Update column references
Use in-place updates instead of separate results table
Test with BallDontLie API for NBA props

Pseudocode:

def grade_previous_day_props(self, target_date):
    # Get ungraded props from yesterday
    cursor.execute("""
        SELECT id, player_name, team, prop_type, market_line, recommendation
        FROM player_prop_predictions
        WHERE date(prediction_date) = ?
        AND result IS NULL
    """, (target_date,))

    for prop in props:
        # Fetch actual stats from BallDontLie API
        actual = get_player_stats(prop['player_name'], target_date)

        # Determine result (WIN/LOSS)
        if prop['recommendation'] == 'OVER':
            result = 'WIN' if actual > market_line else 'LOSS'
        else:
            result = 'WIN' if actual < market_line else 'LOSS'

        # Update database
        cursor.execute("""
            UPDATE player_prop_predictions
            SET result = ?, actual_value = ?, graded_at = ?
            WHERE id = ?
        """, (result, actual, datetime.now(), prop['id']))

Option 2: Create New Grading Script

Time: 1-2 hours Complexity: Low

Write a new grade_props_from_db.py that:

Works with current schema
Simpler, focused logic
Better error handling

Option 3: Migrate to Old Schema

Time: 4-5 hours Complexity: High Not Recommended: Requires changing prediction generation code

Implementation Steps (Option 1)

1. Update results_tracker.py

# Line 26 - Already fixed
def __init__(self, db_path: str = "/root/sporttrader/backend/ml/predictions.db"):

# Lines 48-63 - Update query
cursor.execute("""
    SELECT id, player_name, team, opponent, prop_type, market_line,
           recommendation, prediction_date
    FROM player_prop_predictions
    WHERE date(prediction_date) = ?
    AND result IS NULL
    ORDER BY player_name
""", (target_date,))

# Lines 70-100 - Update grading logic
for prop in ungraded_props:
    prop_id, player_name, team, opponent, prop_type, market_line, recommendation, pred_date = prop

    # Fetch actual stat from API
    actual_value = self.stats_client.get_player_stat(
        player_name=player_name,
        stat_type=prop_type,
        game_date=target_date
    )

    if actual_value is None:
        continue  # Skip if stat not available

    # Determine result
    if recommendation == 'OVER':
        result = 'WIN' if actual_value > market_line else 'LOSS'
    elif recommendation == 'UNDER':
        result = 'WIN' if actual_value < market_line else 'LOSS'
    else:
        result = 'PUSH'  # NO_PLAY recommendations

    # Update database
    cursor.execute("""
        UPDATE player_prop_predictions
        SET result = ?,
            actual_value = ?,
            graded_at = ?
        WHERE id = ?
    """, (result, actual_value, datetime.now(), prop_id))

    graded_count += 1

conn.commit()

2. Test Manually

# SSH to VPS
ssh root@148.230.87.135

# Run grading for yesterday
cd /root/sporttrader/backend
source venv/bin/activate
python3 -c "
from scrapers.props.results_tracker import PropsResultsTracker
from datetime import date, timedelta
t = PropsResultsTracker()
r = t.grade_previous_day_props(date.today() - timedelta(days=1))
print(f'Graded: {r}')
"

# Check results
sqlite3 ml/predictions.db "SELECT COUNT(*), result FROM player_prop_predictions WHERE result IS NOT NULL GROUP BY result;"

3. Verify Cron Job

The cron job is already configured correctly:

0 3 * * * cd /root/sporttrader/backend && source venv/bin/activate && python3 -c "from scrapers.props.results_tracker import PropsResultsTracker; from datetime import date, timedelta; t=PropsResultsTracker(); r=t.grade_previous_day_props(date.today()-timedelta(days=1)); print(r)" >> logs/props_grading.log 2>&1

Just needs the code fixed.

API Requirements

BallDontLie API (NBA)

Free Tier: 30 requests/minute
Endpoint: https://api.balldontlie.io/v1/stats
API Key: May be required (check .env for BALLDONTLIE_API_KEY)
Documentation: https://docs.balldontlie.io/

Required Stats Mapping

prop_type_map = {
    'points': 'pts',
    'rebounds': 'reb',
    'assists': 'ast',
    'steals': 'stl',
    'blocks': 'blk',
    '3pm': 'fg3m',
    'turnovers': 'turnover'
}

Testing Checklist

After fixing the code:

Files to Modify

/root/sporttrader/backend/scrapers/props/results_tracker.py
- Main grading logic
- Database queries
- Lines 26, 48-100 need updates
/root/sporttrader/backend/scrapers/props/balldontlie_client.py
- May need method updates if interface changed
- Verify API key handling
Create /root/sporttrader/backend/grade_props_simple.py (Optional)
- Simpler standalone grading script
- Easier to debug and test

Why This Wasn't Caught Earlier

Silent Failure: Cron job redirects to log, but log was empty (0 bytes)
No Monitoring: Old systems check didn't verify grading success
Schema Evolution: Database evolved but grading code wasn't updated
No Alerts: No notification when grading fails

Now that comprehensive systems check is in place, this will be caught daily if it fails again.

Impact Assessment

Until Fixed:

❌ No performance tracking for player props
❌ PropsPerformance page shows no data
❌ Can't calculate win rate, ROI, or model accuracy
✅ Predictions still generate (2,676/day)
✅ Users can still see props and place bets
✅ No data loss (predictions stored, just not graded)

After Fixed:

✅ Automatic nightly grading
✅ Win/loss tracking
✅ Model performance metrics
✅ ROI calculations
✅ PropsPerformance dashboard populated

Estimated Work

Quick Fix (Option 1):

Code updates: 1 hour
Testing: 1 hour
Deployment: 15 minutes
Verification: 24 hours (wait for next cron run)
Total: 2-3 hours + 1 day monitoring

Proper Solution:

Rewrite grading logic: 2 hours
Add error handling: 1 hour
Comprehensive testing: 2 hours
Documentation: 30 minutes
Total: 5-6 hours

Next Steps

Immediate: Document findings (DONE - this file)
Today: Continue with odds scraper investigation
Tomorrow: Fix props grading system
Day 3: Verify grading works after cron run

Created: December 4, 2025 Status: Documented, ready for implementation Assigned: Pending developer availability

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PROPS_GRADING_FIX_REQUIRED.md

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