Skip to content

Commit c4470a9

Browse files
committed
minor_edit
1 parent b2840dc commit c4470a9

File tree

1 file changed

+85
-89
lines changed

1 file changed

+85
-89
lines changed

lectures/cross_section.md

Lines changed: 85 additions & 89 deletions
Original file line numberDiff line numberDiff line change
@@ -518,95 +518,6 @@ Replicate {ref}`the figure presented above <light_heavy_fig1>` that compares nor
518518
Use `np.random.seed(11)` to set the seed.
519519
```
520520

521-
522-
```{exercise}
523-
:label: ht_ex2
524-
525-
Prove: If $X$ has a Pareto tail with tail index $\alpha$, then
526-
$\mathbb E[X^r] = \infty$ for all $r \geq \alpha$.
527-
```
528-
529-
530-
```{exercise}
531-
:label: ht_ex3
532-
533-
Repeat exercise 1, but replace the three distributions (two normal, one
534-
Cauchy) with three Pareto distributions using different choices of
535-
$\alpha$.
536-
537-
For $\alpha$, try 1.15, 1.5 and 1.75.
538-
539-
Use `np.random.seed(11)` to set the seed.
540-
```
541-
542-
543-
```{exercise}
544-
:label: ht_ex4
545-
546-
547-
Replicate the rank-size plot figure {ref}`presented above <rank_size_fig1>`.
548-
549-
If you like you can use the function `qe.rank_size` from the `quantecon` library to generate the plots.
550-
551-
Use `np.random.seed(13)` to set the seed.
552-
```
553-
554-
```{exercise}
555-
:label: ht_ex5
556-
557-
There is an ongoing argument about whether the firm size distribution should
558-
be modeled as a Pareto distribution or a lognormal distribution (see, e.g.,
559-
{cite}`fujiwara2004pareto`, {cite}`kondo2018us` or {cite}`schluter2019size`).
560-
561-
This sounds esoteric but has real implications for a variety of economic
562-
phenomena.
563-
564-
To illustrate this fact in a simple way, let us consider an economy with
565-
100,000 firms, an interest rate of `r = 0.05` and a corporate tax rate of
566-
15%.
567-
568-
Your task is to estimate the present discounted value of projected corporate
569-
tax revenue over the next 10 years.
570-
571-
Because we are forecasting, we need a model.
572-
573-
We will suppose that
574-
575-
1. the number of firms and the firm size distribution (measured in profits) remain fixed and
576-
1. the firm size distribution is either lognormal or Pareto.
577-
578-
Present discounted value of tax revenue will be estimated by
579-
580-
1. generating 100,000 draws of firm profit from the firm size distribution,
581-
1. multiplying by the tax rate, and
582-
1. summing the results with discounting to obtain present value.
583-
584-
If $X$ has the Pareto distribution, then there are positive constants $\bar x$
585-
and $\alpha$ such that
586-
587-
The Pareto distribution is assumed to take the form {eq}`pareto` with $\bar x = 1$ and $\alpha = 1.05$.
588-
589-
(The value the tail index $\alpha$ is plausible given the data {cite}`gabaix2016power`.)
590-
591-
To make the lognormal option as similar as possible to the Pareto option, choose its parameters such that the mean and median of both distributions are the same.
592-
593-
Note that, for each distribution, your estimate of tax revenue will be random because it is based on a finite number of draws.
594-
595-
To take this into account, generate 100 replications (evaluations of tax revenue) for each of the two distributions and compare the two samples by
596-
597-
* producing a [violin plot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violin_plot) visualizing the two samples side-by-side and
598-
* printing the mean and standard deviation of both samples.
599-
600-
For the seed use `np.random.seed(1234)`.
601-
602-
What differences do you observe?
603-
604-
(Note: a better approach to this problem would be to model firm dynamics and
605-
try to track individual firms given the current distribution. We will discuss
606-
firm dynamics in later lectures.)
607-
```
608-
609-
610521
```{solution-start} ht_ex1
611522
:class: dropdown
612523
```
@@ -644,6 +555,13 @@ plt.show()
644555
```
645556

646557

558+
```{exercise}
559+
:label: ht_ex2
560+
561+
Prove: If $X$ has a Pareto tail with tail index $\alpha$, then
562+
$\mathbb E[X^r] = \infty$ for all $r \geq \alpha$.
563+
```
564+
647565
```{solution-start} ht_ex2
648566
:class: dropdown
649567
```
@@ -674,6 +592,20 @@ Since $r \geq \alpha$, we have $\mathbb E X^r = \infty$.
674592
```{solution-end}
675593
```
676594

595+
596+
```{exercise}
597+
:label: ht_ex3
598+
599+
Repeat exercise 1, but replace the three distributions (two normal, one
600+
Cauchy) with three Pareto distributions using different choices of
601+
$\alpha$.
602+
603+
For $\alpha$, try 1.15, 1.5 and 1.75.
604+
605+
Use `np.random.seed(11)` to set the seed.
606+
```
607+
608+
677609
```{solution-start} ht_ex3
678610
:class: dropdown
679611
```
@@ -704,6 +636,17 @@ plt.show()
704636
```
705637

706638

639+
```{exercise}
640+
:label: ht_ex4
641+
642+
643+
Replicate the rank-size plot figure {ref}`presented above <rank_size_fig1>`.
644+
645+
If you like you can use the function `qe.rank_size` from the `quantecon` library to generate the plots.
646+
647+
Use `np.random.seed(13)` to set the seed.
648+
```
649+
707650
```{solution-start} ht_ex4
708651
:class: dropdown
709652
```
@@ -747,7 +690,60 @@ plt.show()
747690
```{solution-end}
748691
```
749692

693+
```{exercise}
694+
:label: ht_ex5
750695
696+
There is an ongoing argument about whether the firm size distribution should
697+
be modeled as a Pareto distribution or a lognormal distribution (see, e.g.,
698+
{cite}`fujiwara2004pareto`, {cite}`kondo2018us` or {cite}`schluter2019size`).
699+
700+
This sounds esoteric but has real implications for a variety of economic
701+
phenomena.
702+
703+
To illustrate this fact in a simple way, let us consider an economy with
704+
100,000 firms, an interest rate of `r = 0.05` and a corporate tax rate of
705+
15%.
706+
707+
Your task is to estimate the present discounted value of projected corporate
708+
tax revenue over the next 10 years.
709+
710+
Because we are forecasting, we need a model.
711+
712+
We will suppose that
713+
714+
1. the number of firms and the firm size distribution (measured in profits) remain fixed and
715+
1. the firm size distribution is either lognormal or Pareto.
716+
717+
Present discounted value of tax revenue will be estimated by
718+
719+
1. generating 100,000 draws of firm profit from the firm size distribution,
720+
1. multiplying by the tax rate, and
721+
1. summing the results with discounting to obtain present value.
722+
723+
If $X$ has the Pareto distribution, then there are positive constants $\bar x$
724+
and $\alpha$ such that
725+
726+
The Pareto distribution is assumed to take the form {eq}`pareto` with $\bar x = 1$ and $\alpha = 1.05$.
727+
728+
(The value the tail index $\alpha$ is plausible given the data {cite}`gabaix2016power`.)
729+
730+
To make the lognormal option as similar as possible to the Pareto option, choose its parameters such that the mean and median of both distributions are the same.
731+
732+
Note that, for each distribution, your estimate of tax revenue will be random because it is based on a finite number of draws.
733+
734+
To take this into account, generate 100 replications (evaluations of tax revenue) for each of the two distributions and compare the two samples by
735+
736+
* producing a [violin plot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Violin_plot) visualizing the two samples side-by-side and
737+
* printing the mean and standard deviation of both samples.
738+
739+
For the seed use `np.random.seed(1234)`.
740+
741+
What differences do you observe?
742+
743+
(Note: a better approach to this problem would be to model firm dynamics and
744+
try to track individual firms given the current distribution. We will discuss
745+
firm dynamics in later lectures.)
746+
```
751747

752748
```{solution-start} ht_ex5
753749
:class: dropdown

0 commit comments

Comments
 (0)