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lectures/long_run_growth.md

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## Overview
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Adam Tooze's account of the geopolitical precedents and antecedents of World War I includes a comparison of how National Gross National Products of European Great Powers had evolved during the 70 years preceding 1914 (see chapter 1 of {cite}`Tooze_2014`).
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Adam Tooze's account of the geopolitical precedents and antecedents of World War I includes a comparison of how Gross National Products of European Great Powers had evolved during the 70 years preceding 1914 (see chapter 1 of {cite}`Tooze_2014`).
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We report a version of Tooze's graph later in this lecture.
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While some countries have experienced long term rapid growth across that has lasted a hundred years, others have not.
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Since populations differ across country and within a country vary over time, it will
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be interesting to describe both total GNP and GNP per capita as it evolves within a country.
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be interesting to describe both total GDP and GDP per capita as it evolves within a country.
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First let's import the packages needed to explore what the data says about long run growth
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data
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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gdppc = data.set_index(['countrycode','year'])['gdppc']
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gdppc = gdppc.unstack('countrycode')
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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gdppc
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```
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Now we create a color mapping between country codes and colors for consistency
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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country_names = data['countrycode']
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color_mapping = {country: color for country, color in zip(country_names, colors)}
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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gdppc = data.set_index(['countrycode','year'])['gdppc']
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gdppc = gdppc.unstack('countrycode')
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```
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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gdppc
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```
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+++ {"user_expressions": []}
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Looking at the United Kingdom we can first confirm we are using the correct country code
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plt.show()
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```
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We can also look at the United States (USA) and United Kingdom (GBR) in more detail
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In the following graph, please watch for
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- impact of trade policy (Navigation Act)
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### The modern era (1950 to 2020)
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As history repeats itself, the rapid growth in modern China is now challenging the economic hegemony of the US
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As history repeats itself, the rapid growth in modern China is now challenging the economic hegemony of the US
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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+++ {"user_expressions": []}
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Let us interpolate based on time to fill in any gaps in the dataset for the purpose of plotting
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Let's interpolate based on time to fill in any gaps in the dataset for the purpose of plotting
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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regionalgdppc.interpolate(method='time', inplace=True)
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+++ {"user_expressions": []}
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Looking more closely, let us compare the time series for `Western Offshoots` and `Sub-Saharan Africa`
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Looking more closely, let's compare the time series for `Western Offshoots` and `Sub-Saharan Africa` and more broadly at a number of different regions around the world
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and more broadly at a number of different regions around the world
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Again we see the divergence of the West from the rest of the world after the industrial revolution and the convergence of the world after the 1950s
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---

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