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lectures/inflation_history.md

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@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ Thus, they tended to end a century at close to a level at which they started it.
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Things were different in the 20th century, as we shall see in this lecture.
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This lecture will set the stage for some subsequent lecture about a particular theory that economists use to
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This lecture will set the stage for some subsequent lectures about a particular theory that economists use to
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think about determinants of the price level.
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By staring at the graph carefully, you might be able to guess when these temporary lapses occurred, because they were also times during which price levels rose markedly from what had been average values during more typical years.
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* 1791-1797 in France (the French revolution)
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* 1791-1797 in France (the French Revolution)
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* 1776-1793 in the US (the US War for Independence from Great Britain)
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* 1861-1865 in the US (the US Civil War)
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* While using valuable gold and silver as coins was a time-tested way to anchor the price level by limiting the supply of money, it cost real resources.
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* that is, society paid a high "opportunity cost" for using gold and silver as coins; gold and silver could instead be used as valuable jewelry and also as an industrial input
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* that is, society paid a high "opportunity cost" for using gold and silver as coins; gold and silver could instead be used as valuable jewelry and also as an industrial input.
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Keynes and Fisher proposed what they suggested would be a socially more efficient way to achieve a price level that would be at least as firmly anchored, and would also exhibit less year-to-year short-term fluctuations.
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But notice that in doing so, it also eliminates an automatic supply mechanism constraining the price level.
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A low-inflation paper fiat money system replaces that automatic mechanism with an enlightened government that commits itself to limit the quantity of a pure token, no-cost currency.
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A low-inflation paper fiat money system replaces that automatic mechanism with an enlightened government that commits itself to limiting the quantity of a pure token, no-cost currency.
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Now let's see what happened to the price level in our four countries when after 1914 one after another of them
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left the gold/silver standard.
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For each country, we'll plot two graphs.
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For each country, the first graph plots logarithms of
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The first graph plots logarithms of
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* price levels
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* exchange rates vis a vis US dollars
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For each country, the second graph plots a three-month moving average of the inflation rate defined as $p_t - p_{t-1}$.
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### Austria
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The sources of our data are:
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In addition, the US dollar exchange rates for each of the four countries shadowed their price levels.
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* this pattern is an instance of a force modeled in the **purchasing power parity** theory of exchange rates.
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* This pattern is an instance of a force modeled in the **purchasing power parity** theory of exchange rates.
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Each of these big inflations seemed to have "stopped on a dime".
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