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<html>
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<link rel="stylesheet" href="css/epl.css">
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<script src="https://unpkg.com/[email protected]"></script>
<script src="scripts/epl.js"></script>
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<img src="images/EPL_Logo.jpg" alt="EPL Logo" width="100%" height="900">
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<h1 align="center"><strong>EPL Competitive Balance Analysis</strong></h1>
<h2 align="center"><strong>By Rahul Gaonkar, Achyut Tibrewalla and Divyanshu Singh | December 10, 2018</strong></h2>
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<p>
Competitive balance of league competitions is an important component of sport economics. Evidence suggests that a less attractive product
might struggle to command a high market value. Thus, it is imperative that sport leagues remain competitively balanced with a degree of
uncertainty of outcome. Forget the NBA, NFL or Major League Baseball - no domestic competition provokes more interest worldwide than the
English Premier League. It might not be the best quality football like La Liga but nothing matches the EPL for drama, storylines, action
and tribal rivalry. The English Premier League is the top level of the English football league system. Contested by 20 clubs, it operates
on a system of promotion and relegation. The top 4 teams of the English Premier League get qualified for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League">UEFA Champions League</a>.
The bottom 3 teams get relegated to a lower division league (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFL_Championship">EFL Championship</a>).
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<p>
Over the years, the utterly unpredictable EPL has revealed a new reality: The traditional top four isn’t the invincible force it used to be.
For much of the last decade you could depend on the same four teams qualifying for the league’s allotted Champions League spaces: Arsenal,
Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United. But Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City are hoping to take advantage now. Also,
a wide range of teams have been in bottom four indicating the topsy turvy nature of the EPL.
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<h3 align="center">What is the distribution of teams over different seasons based on league positions ?</h3>
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Clubs like Manchester United and Liverpool who usually competed for the top 4 had poor seasons and dropped out of the reckoning entirely, after the
change of managers and players. Arsenal consistently finished inside the Premier League’s top four, continuing Arsene Wenger’s unblemished record of
qualifying for the Champions League. Also, Chelsea have been in the top four race accounting to their financial and squad stability. Manchester City
entered the top 4 group due to the wealth of their current owners, who bought them in 2008 and have consistently been there after extensive squad
restructuring. Tottenham Hotspur have also given up on their inherent "Spursiness" and are ready for glory with the likes of Gareth Bale, Luka Modrić
and Harry Kane. Similarly, it’s not unheard of for a team that would usually be considered lower order to make their way into the top half of the league,
and even challenge for the European qualification positions. Once thought to be candidates for relegation, Leicester City have been the biggest shock in
EPL when they won the 2015/2016 season considering the team’s comparative lack of resources and big-name players.
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<p>
But where the Premier League, seems to have separated itself from the rest is at the other end of the table. It’s certainly debatable about the technical
quality and tactical approach of some teams at the lower echelons, especially around the relegation zone. But what can’t be doubted is entertainment. Pit
any of the teams at the bottom end against teams at the top, and while victory is highly unlikely, you’re often assured of something riveting. I hate to
say it, but unlike other leagues, they don't just roll over to accept their fate which is evident from the wide range of teams in bottom four. Of course,
the prospect of relegation for these clubs is huge. But that’s what makes it so thrilling: risking everything to stay alive. To stay in the top flight,
and dream of being the next Leicester City.
</p>
<p>
This competitive balance – which can roughly be defined as the extent to which any team can beat any other team has created more uncertain outcomes and an
increase in match attendances, television audiences and overall interest. So it may be that the global popularity of EPL compared to other sports is,
in part, a consequence of it being “competitively balanced”. Measuring competitive balance – and unpredictability – is a complicated issue. Most measures
use reasonable game statistic metrics like the spread of goal difference, total passes completed and the proportion of wins, draws, losses of all the teams over
different seasons.
</p>
</div>
<h3 align="center">Does the game statistics influence the league position of teams in a season?</h3>
<br>
<h5 align="center">EPL SEASON START YEAR</h5>
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The no-nonsense style of British football is the oldest style of football known and it is still being applied in the Premier League. EPL style of play is
attacking in nature and involves high pace box-to-box movement; this is because teams try to get the ball as quickly as possible to the final third
to create more scoring opportunities. Owing to the style of play, generally number of wins are more influential in deciding the league position of the
teams in a season rather than the proportion of number of wins and draws. Also, the teams placed at higher league positions have a positive
goal difference (difference of goal scored and goals conceded) and higher ball posession i.e. higher number of passes completed as compared to the teams
placed at lower league positions which have a negative goal difference (difference of goal scored and goals conceded) and lower ball posession i.e. lower
number of passes completed.
</p>
<p>
Considering the competitive balance in EPL, we can see constant fluctuations in these game statistics. Some significant fluctuations like Manchester City
had a negative goal difference in season 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 and improved on their goal difference since then after their squad restructuring which
helped them improve their league position and enter in the top 4 group. Also, Leicester city had a negative goal difference since getting promoted in EPL
except for the season 2015/2016 when they won the league. In addition to goal difference, they also showcased an overall improvement in the number
of wins and number of passes completed.
</p>
<p>
EPL is a competition that retains an intrinsic sense of unpredictability and unchoreographed madness making it the most lucrative football division in the
world. This is the paradox of the Premier League: it is the most popular league partly because it hasn’t got a monopoly on the best teams. Effectively it
embraces a trade-off – slightly diluting the quality of the very best teams, in return for having a more competitive overall field.
</p>
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<hr>
<p>
Sources: <a href="http://www.bbcamerica.com/anglophenia/2014/08/10-things-know-english-premier-league">Things You Should Know About the EPL</a>,
<a href="https://nypost.com/2016/01/25/premier-leagues-top-4-is-done-as-we-know-it/">EPL Top 4</a>, <a href="https://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/how-unpredictability-saved-the-premier-league">Unpredictability in EPL</a>,
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League">Premier League</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-how-unpredictable-is-the-premier-league-scientists-have-done-the-maths-59839">Measuring competitive balance</a>,
<a href="https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-Spanish-British-German-Italian-and-French-styles-of-club-football">EPL Style of Play</a>
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