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Engineering Evidence — What the Private AXIOS Engine Actually Enforces

The AXIOS trading engine is private IP. This page documents verifiable engineering practice from that codebase — the discipline, not the alpha. All numbers are from CI-enforced gates as of 2026-07-01.

English | Deutsch


The Numbers (CI-enforced, not aspirational)

Metric Value Enforcement
Core coverage (broker / execution / risk / core) 95.7% CI gate fails below 95 — ratchet-up-only
Second-ring coverage (strategy / governance / validation / observability / compliance) 78% and climbing Own CI gate, own ratchet floor
Test files ~280 Full suite green required to merge
Coverage floors ever lowered 0 Constitutional rule: floors only move up

The Constitution (excerpt from the private MASTERPLAN)

  1. Capital preservation outranks the return target. Always.
  2. Every safety check is fail-closed. An error inside a check blocks the trade — it never lets one through. Every happy-path test in the core has a "fails safely" twin.
  3. Coverage floors are never lowered, and live in two places (pyproject + CI) that must move together.
  4. Nothing merges without a green gate. One week = one sprint = one measurable exit gate.
  5. The live-arming switch belongs to a human. No model, no automation, ever sets it.

Architecture Highlights (design, not parameters)

  • Kill-chain engine — graded actions (pause → close positions → emergency stop) driven by drawdown, data-health, losing-streak and crisis inputs; hardest action always wins.
  • Governed LLM layer — an LLM may propose; a deterministic baseline trades. Hard fallback on error/timeout/hallucination/low-confidence, drift monitoring (PSI), champion/challenger promotion only on realised out-of-sample returns.
  • Hash-chained, HMAC-signed track-record ledger — no performance claim without a chain.
  • Walk-forward validation harness — rolling out-of-sample only; promotion gates paper → testnet → canary → live, each with explicit exit criteria.
  • Compliance core — immutable audit log (actor + reason required), trade reporting, capital plan gated by promotion stage, game-day fault-injection suite green in CI.
  • Signal economics — the entire input stack runs at ~zero marginal cost (public market data, free-tier feeds, a proprietary geopolitical regime-classification system, and a budget-capped LLM layer). A system with zero marginal signal cost can wait indefinitely for its edge; one with a running bill dies of impatience.

Incident Postmortem: The LLM That Burned Its Own Budget

The most instructive production incident wasn't a bad trade — it was an LLM cost leak.

  • Symptom: the LLM signal layer consumed its full daily API budget day after day (700–1,350 calls/day where ~a dozen were expected).
  • Root cause: a module-level factory built a fresh generator instance per call, so an in-memory panic-throttle timestamp never persisted — the 6-hour response cache was bypassed on every poll.
  • Fix: persistent file-backed throttle + regression test; enforced budget aligned to the documented value; three independent cost backstops added.
  • Lesson written into the system's own briefing: a trading system is a cost body first and a return machine second. Its first provably profitable decision was capping its own costs.

Full postmortem, runbooks and a postmortem template live in the private repo.

Why the Engine Itself Is Private

The moat of a trading system is calibrated parameters, strategy logic and its data edge. Publishing those would destroy the asset being demonstrated. What can be shown — architecture, testing discipline, governance, incident culture — is exactly what this reference repo and this page show. In an interview, deeper artifacts (redacted CI runs, gate reports, ADRs) can be walked through live.


Deutsch

Die Kennzahlen oben sind CI-erzwungen (Stand 2026-07-01): 95,7% Kern-Coverage mit Ratchet-Gate, zweiter Coverage-Ring mit eigenem Floor, ~280 Testdateien, Floors wurden nie gesenkt. Die Verfassung des privaten Systems: Kapitalerhalt vor Rendite, jede Sicherheitsprüfung fail-closed, kein Merge ohne grünes Gate, der Live-Schalter gehört ausschließlich einem Menschen. Der lehrreichste Produktions-Incident war kein Trade, sondern ein LLM-Kostenleck — Root-Cause, Fix und Regressionstest sind dokumentiert; die Lektion steht im System selbst: Ein Handelssystem ist zuerst ein Kostenkörper und erst dann eine Renditemaschine. Der Motor bleibt privat, weil der Burggraben eines Trading-Systems aus kalibrierten Parametern und Daten-Edge besteht — gezeigt wird hier die Ingenieursdisziplin, nicht das Alpha.